Description: Burn probability is the average annual likelihood that a specific location will experience wildfire. Burn probabilities represent long-term averages and are not forecasts or predictions of where fire is going to occur in a specific year. Annual burn probabilities are primarily a reflection of regional climate patterns and vegetation types, but can be affected by land use, ignition patterns and other elements that are within human control.<br><br>For the statewide risk map, scientists used FSim-Wildfire Risk Simulation Software to estimate annual burn probabilities. The simulations used local weather records, up to date landscape conditions, and historical patterns of fire occurrence to simulate where fires ignite, how they grow, and how often the landscape burns. Average burn probabilities were generated from simulations of more than 10,000 annual scenarios to account for the wide variability in factors that influence fire occurrence.<br><br>(PNW QWRA, 2018)